Summer 2026: Ukrainians kept travelling, but safety and format became decisive

The summer 2026 season showed that Ukrainians’ demand for travel remains resilient, but tourist behavior is becoming increasingly unpredictable. In May, Ribas Hotels Group forecast a record season for domestic tourism, an increase in the booking window to 62 days, and high occupancy at key resort destinations. The actual results turned out to be mixed: some forecasts were confirmed, while others were significantly adjusted due to the security situation, transport problems, and changes in the guests’ own choices.

According to Regina Shapovalova, Head of Sales at Ribas Management, the main takeaway of the season is not growth or decline in tourist flow as such, but its redistribution.

“Ukrainians haven’t stopped wanting to travel. But reality, the practicality of a trip, safety, and the situation in a specific location increasingly influence a guest’s decision,” the expert notes.

The Record-Season Forecast Did Not Fully Come True

In its May forecast, Ribas Hotels Group expected summer 2026 to be a record one for domestic tourism. The actual results across the network did not confirm this. Some hotels in the Carpathian region showed record occupancy, others stayed roughly at last year’s level, and certain properties did not show the expected growth.

Thus, the season turned out to be not so much record-breaking as uneven. The result of an individual hotel increasingly depended on its location, format, accessibility, and ability to adapt to changing demand.

At the same time, some forecasts did come true. For example, in the Lviv region, average occupancy in August was about 79%, with no significant dip on weekdays. In Zakarpattia, the gap between weekdays and weekends turned out smaller than expected: 67% versus 72%, respectively. This points to a more even distribution of demand across the week.

The Guest Became Less Predictable at the Moment of Booking

One of the most noticeable differences between the May forecast and the actual season was behavior in trip planning.

In May, the forecast for the network’s average booking window was 62 days versus 44 days a year earlier. This was seen as a sign that Ukrainians had begun planning their summer holidays earlier and more deliberately. However, over the course of the season this trend did not take hold: the actual booking window returned to roughly last year’s levels, and in some months even shortened. Guests again more often made decisions right before the trip.

At the same time, another trend held: length of stay. The average length of actual stays remained above three nights, meaning guests did not return to a model of predominantly short one-to-two-day trips.

Thus, tourist behavior became something of a paradox: guests are not necessarily ready to book far in advance, but if they do decide to go, they want a full-fledged holiday.

Odesa: Demand Remained, but Safety Became the Main Filter

The most noticeable gap between forecast and reality occurred in the Odesa region.

In May, Ribas Hotels Group forecast occupancy of at least 75% in Odesa and 85% across the region. In fact, over the entire season, occupancy at the group’s hotels in Odesa and the region came to 63%.

At the same time, price was not the main reason for the drop in demand. The network’s average rate for the summer rose by about 22% compared with 2025, and in the Odesa cluster by 21%. The actual average price per night in Odesa for May–August was UAH 3,688.

According to Regina Shapovalova, this season the main filter for guests was location itself.

“Hotels in the city center and near critical infrastructure lost both occupancy and the ability to hold their prices, while hotels in safer locations felt much more confident,” she explains.

August was also telling. It is usually one of the busiest months of the season, but this year it was precisely in August that hotels failed to hold both a high rate and high occupancy at the same time. The group’s hotels in the Odesa region showed their best rate dynamics in June–July, while in August the tourist flow turned out lower than expected.

At the same time, three Odesa hotels in the network kept monthly occupancy above 50% throughout the season, and there were no cases of confirmed bookings being canceled by the network’s hotels.

Demand That Didn’t Go to Odesa Didn’t Automatically Move to Bukovel

Another important takeaway of the season was a shift in the geography of demand in the Carpathians.

In May, the company expected demand growth for Bukovel and surrounding locations of about 19% compared with the same period last year. Actual bookings did not confirm this growth.

However, this does not mean tourists lost interest in the Carpathians. On the contrary, during peak periods Bukovel’s hotels continued to operate at high occupancy. What changed was the distribution of demand within the region.

Some guests chose Mykulychyn, Polianytsia, and other surrounding areas. Cottages and countryside resorts performed especially well, offering guests more privacy, quiet, and contact with nature. Choices were influenced not only by price and competition, but also by transport accessibility, the security situation, and the active construction in Bukovel itself.

So the important trend of the summer was not an outflow from a popular destination, but a redistribution of the flow within it.

Cottages Became One of the Season’s Main Formats

The May forecast anticipated high demand for large resort complexes with swimming pools, spas, and well-developed infrastructure. This thesis was broadly confirmed, especially among families with children.

At the same time, the actual season showed strong growth in another format: cottages.

Both in Zakarpattia and in the Kyiv region, cottages delivered good results. Guests were looking not necessarily for the maximum number of infrastructure options, but for the chance to be alone, rest in quiet, and have more private space.

Thus, two distinct models of demand clearly emerged this summer. A large resort complex with a pool, spa, and infrastructure meets the needs of family holidays, while cottages and countryside resorts attract guests for whom privacy, quiet, and contact with nature matter more.

Safety Stopped Being an Advantage and Became a Condition of Travel

Back in its May forecast, Ribas Hotels Group noted that safety is gradually turning from a competitive advantage into a basic condition of choice. The actual season confirmed this.

By the end of summer, guests asked about the availability of shelters even more often, especially in Odesa and other potentially dangerous regions. They assessed not only whether the hotel had a shelter, but also the property’s location relative to potentially dangerous sites.

This changes the very logic of choosing a hotel. Safety is no longer a feature that in itself creates extra value for the guest. It becomes a filter: if basic safety conditions are not met, the hotel’s other advantages may no longer matter.

At the Same Time, Guests Keep Choosing to Travel

Despite all the adjustments to the forecast, one of the main positive results of the season, according to Ribas Hotels Group, is that Ukrainians have not given up the desire to travel.

According to Regina Shapovalova, even amid a difficult situation on the roads and unpredictability, guests kept finding ways to reach different locations and spend time away from home. She also singles out the growth of cottage resorts as confirmation that variety of formats is becoming an important competitive advantage for the hotel business.

At the same time, the season also showed the limits of forecasting in wartime. Even the positive momentum on which hotel businesses base their plans can change quickly under the influence of external factors that cannot be controlled. That is why it is important for operators not only to forecast demand but also to have enough flexibility to quickly change their sales strategy, rates, and offers.

Summer 2026 thus did not become an unequivocally record season. But it demonstrated something else:Ukrainian travelers have not given up on holidays. They have become much more careful in choosing the place, format, and timing of a trip.

For the hotel market, this means that competition will increasingly be not only for the tourist, but for the ability to offer them the right kind of holiday in specific circumstances, from a safe location and convenient logistics to a private cottage or a full-service resort.